Putin Has No Clothes

It’s always been a mismatched conflict. Big Russia impinging on little Ukraine. A heavy-handed totalitarian state bullying one that aspires to democracy. Outdated imperialism contrasts with a simple desire for progressive freedom.

But now that Russia has devolved into civil strife over the mercenary Wagner Group, we see how disparate the two countries really are. Ukraine is united around a clear and compelling need to protect its homeland and ensure its vital future. Blundering Russia, on the other hand, is embarrassed and confused over the need for the war, who should fight it, and what the goals might be. As a dramatic device for framing good versus evil, this conflict has now become a true farce.

All pretenses surrounding the start of the war have dissolved. Prigozhin has revealed that Russia felt no threat from Ukraine, and that Putin, an old-fashioned despot, merely wanted to restore imperial Russian hegemony. 

Bungled military decisions, borne of ignorance and lack of respect for Ukraine’s integrity, commitment, and bravery have marked the Russian campaign. The grave loss of Russian soldiers and the scaling back of military objectives gave rise to Prigozhin’s vituperation of Russian war management. Even though he was an ultra-patriot, Prigozhin was disgusted over the bloated and incompetent Russian army leadership and the resultant failures on the battlefield. That this disgust would erupt into the open and lead to an armed rebellion shatters the world’s assumption that Russia was a mighty monolith under Putin’s cool and complete control. Even more astounding, many in Russian society, including in the military, supported the rebel views and outwardly demonstrated that support.

This can no longer be viewed as simply a conflict between two parties with different, but ostensibly legitimate, geopolitical views. Russia has been exposed as a scrofulous thief, a sham power that lacks resolve, leadership, and popular backing. While Putin may still be dangerous—perhaps even more so if he continues to be challenged or becomes desperate—he will never muster enough moral suasion to prosecute the war effectively. He allowed a reprobate like Prigozhin to ascend to a position of power in a base transactional calculation, and it severely backfired. 

Now the world easily sees through the posturing and lies of the Russian president. One wonders how China views the shambles of its erstwhile ally. Besides the deaths of tens of thousands of Russian troops, a proud military legacy and even the worthiness of the Russian nation itself have been utterly sacrificed. It is an outcome no less desultory for its predictability.